In a recent report, JPMorgan analysts suggest that Bitcoin may outperform gold in the second half of 2025, citing evolving investor behavior and sector-specific growth as key factors. The "depreciation trade"—a strategy where investors hedge against weakening fiat currencies by turning to safe-haven assets like gold and Bitcoin—initially supported both assets in late 2024. However, analysts note a shift in 2025: the relationship has become more competitive, with one asset rising as the other lags.
According to the JPMorgan team led by managing director Nikolaos Panigirtzoglou, Bitcoin has shown stronger momentum against gold in recent weeks. "While gold outperformed Bitcoin from mid-February to mid-April, we’ve seen a reversal over the past three weeks, with Bitcoin gaining the upper hand," the report notes. The analysts believe this competitive dynamic will persist through the rest of the year.
Bitcoin’s Rising Momentum Driven by Sector-Specific Catalysts
Bitcoin’s recent performance is not merely a reflection of gold's weakness. Analysts highlight positive industry developments driving Bitcoin’s upward trend:
MicroStrategy’s Transformation: Rebranded as “Strategy,” the company plans to invest $42 billion in Bitcoin by 2027. Notably, 60% of that target has already been reached.
Metaplanet’s Continued Accumulation: The Japanese firm is following a similar path, increasing its Bitcoin reserves aggressively.
U.S. States Embrace Bitcoin as a Reserve Asset
In a groundbreaking move, several U.S. states are beginning to treat Bitcoin as a legitimate reserve asset:
New Hampshire can now invest up to 5% of its state funds in Bitcoin and gold.
Arizona is creating a digital asset reserve backed by staking revenues and airdrops, and has committed to no new taxes in the process.
JPMorgan analysts believe that if more states adopt similar policies, it could create a long-term bullish effect on Bitcoin’s price and perception as a safe-haven asset.
Crypto Derivatives Market Signals Growing Institutional Interest
Another driver of Bitcoin’s growth is the maturation of the crypto derivatives market. Key developments include:
Coinbase’s acquisition of Deribit
Kraken’s acquisition of NinjaTrader
Gemini’s license to offer crypto derivatives in Europe
These moves by major U.S.-based exchanges signal rising institutional confidence and increased investor participation in the crypto space.
Final Thoughts
While both gold and Bitcoin remain key tools for hedging against fiat currency depreciation, JPMorgan’s outlook clearly favors Bitcoin's upside potential in 2025. With institutional adoption, state-level integration, and a strengthening derivatives market, Bitcoin may well outshine gold in the months ahead.
Disclaimer: This article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice
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